You can take a transactional view or a statistical view. Statistical view is of the past. Transactional view is of present. Statistical view focuses on trends. Transactional view focuses on — you guessed it — a transaction. Statistical view is general and transactional view is personal. Transactional view owns and statistical view disowns. Statistical view is used for defense and judgment, transactional view is used for intuition and thought.
The biggest fallacy? We transpose and juxtapose the statistical past on the unknown future. I can see a hundred of you piling on me to tell me how wrong I am. But really what do we know of the future? All bankers, investment managers, real estate brokers, common civilians have made and continue to make this simple, yet profound error of judgment which lands us in all kinds of situations — some good, some not good. Often times, these outcomes have nothing to do with the statistical past, yet result in getting added to the past as a statistic.